A wave of new analysis by U.S. intelligence agencies has warned that Hamas’s credibility and influence have grown dramatically across the Middle East in the two months since the unprecedented October 7 offensive and the start of Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip.
While Israel’s ongoing air campaign has killed thousands of civilians inside Gaza, Hamas, which is classified as a terrorist group by the United States and Europe, has been able to present itself as the only militant group fighting against a brutal oppressor killing women and children.
Officials familiar with the various assessments say the group has succeeded in positioning itself in some parts of the Arab and Muslim world as a defender of the Palestinian cause and an effective fighter against Israel.
Hamas’ growing influence comes in the wake of its daring attack (on November 7) on Israel, which killed about 1,200, including 311 soldiers, according to official Israeli statements, and its field performance in confronting the Israeli occupation forces, and dealing strong blows to them despite the fierceness of the war waged by Israel on the entire Gaza Strip.
The United States has vigorously defended Israel’s right to defend itself in the aftermath of the attack, “including its campaign to completely eliminate Hamas.”
From Hamas’s perspective, the October 7 attack on southern Israel was a spectacular operational success. In the months that followed, it was credited – particularly in the occupied West Bank – for negotiating the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees held by Israel, in exchange for some of the hostages held by the group during the offensive, these sources say. .
“Meanwhile, Hamas propaganda videos portray the group as highly moral fighters who follow the teachings of Islam – despite the horrific details of the October 7 attack and accusations of sexual violence against Israeli women reported by eyewitnesses that day – along with a flood of devastating attacks.”
Images of the suffering of civilians inside Gaza have spread widely on Arab social media.
The network quotes a senior US administration official as saying, “Hamas was not a very popular organization (before October 7), but today it is more popular.”
According to the U.S. intelligence report, “the conflict is more likely to strengthen Hamas’s influence outside Gaza than inside Gaza, where years of misgovernance have generated mistrust.”
An opinion poll conducted during the first week of November showed that strong support for the October 7 attacks was much higher among Palestinians in the West Bank than among Gaza – 68% versus 47%. While conducting surveys is a wartime challenge, where many Gazans have been displaced from their homes by Israeli bombardment, this finding has been repeated in other surveys.
Various assessments have been circulating within the U.S. government, with Biden administration officials publicly warning that the civilian death toll from Israeli bombing threatens to increase Hamas’s popularity in the Palestinian territories, and while analysts warn that bombing could only inspire more terrorism there and abroad.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said earlier this month: “In this kind of fighting, the center of gravity is the civilian population.” “If you push them into the arms of the enemy, you replace tactical victory with strategic defeat.”
In his office, about a mile from Ramallah’s main square, Khalil Shikaki is thinking about the conflict and saying the Palestinians overwhelmingly support Hamas’s decision to go to war with Israel. His research firm, the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR), has just published the results of its latest poll on Palestinian attitudes.
750 adults were interviewed in the West Bank and 481 in Gaza. Data was collected in Gaza during the recent truce, when movement was safer for researchers.
The poll, which has a margin of error of four points (instead of the usual three), found that nearly three-quarters (72%) of respondents believed Hamas’s decision to launch its attack on Israel on October 7 was “correct.”
Less than a quarter (22%) said this was “not true.”
Shikaki said this did not mean supporting atrocities: “No one should see this as support for any atrocities Hamas may have committed that day.” “
“Palestinians believe that diplomacy and negotiations are not an option, and that only violence and armed struggle can end the blockade of Gaza and, more generally, the Israeli occupation.”
This important distinction was highlighted by three survey data points. Nearly 80% of respondents told PCPR researchers that killing women and children in their homes is a war crime.
